Dave Karger predicts the Oscars nominees

After scouring all the critics awards, Golden Globe and SAG nominations, I’ve come up with my predictions for who’ll get nominated in the eight main Oscar races on Feb. 2. My Best Picture picks are immediately below; the other seven categories are after the jump. In the acting races, I stuck largely with the SAG picks, which seem right to me. Except in the supporting actress category, where I think there will be more of a discrepancy. These picks are immortalized in print in EW’s Jan. 8 issue; since we still have the DGA and PGA before us, time will tell if I make any changes between now and nomination day.

Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Messenger
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Oh, how much easier this would be if there were only five Best Picture nominees this year: It’d be Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Precious, and Inglourious Basterds and we’d call it a day. It’s those other five slots that are tougher to suss out.

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Samantha Morton, The Messenger

Mo’Nique and Anna Kendrick have monopolized the critics’ prizes, while Kendrick’s costar Vera Farmiga also seems a good bet. The Screen Actors Guild overlooked Julianne Moore, but her boozy BFF in A Single Man should do the trick with the Academy. As Nine’s buzz continues to fade, Golden Globe and  SAG Award nominee Penélope Cruz may find herself edged out. Inglourious Basterds‘ Diane Kruger made the SAG list, but the likeliest stealth contender is The Messenger’s Samantha Morton, who has snuck in at the last minute before.

Also he predictsmore Up in the air nominations such as:
Best Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air

Best Director
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
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